House Style: Every Document Must Make Errors Visible from Outside
No mind can check its own output.
⬛️ Research ⬛️
The Randomized Trial, AB Testing: The Only Way to Be Less Wrong
Decisions that rely on guesses, regardless of expertise, are just that, guesses. You want to know the right thing to do. You can't. Not ahead of time, unless you have causal evidence.
Randomized Trial Simulator - IcebergSim RCT
A clinical trial simulator - experience signal, noise, and sample size first-hand. Simulate thousands of randomized controlled trials and watch how your assumptions shape power, Type I error, and validity.
Stepped-Wedge Cluster Randomized Trials: Methodological Foundations and Case Study
For researchers and health policy makers, understanding the value of SW-CRTs can open doors to more robust evaluation of health programs. In an era of accountability and evidence-based policy, being able to demonstrate that a new strategy works (or that it doesn’t or needs modification) is crucial.
The Evolution of Truth: Evidence-Based Medicine's Path from Heresy to Artificial Inteligence
How do we determine which interventions truly benefit patients? This seemingly simple inquiry has profound implications for patient outcomes, healthcare resources, and the very nature of medical practice.
An essay on {AI-Humans} shared failure mode: The Dogmatic Average
On the single most common way that a mind — silicon or carbon — goes wrong: mistaking the frequency of a claim for its truth. And on the only cure that has ever worked.
Exceptional HIV Coverage vs. Neglected Basic Care. PEPFAR actions in Africa.
This is an analysis of the results of the largest study ever conducted on Quality of Care During Pregnancy in Africa.
AI Prompt Engineering - The Bibliotecary's Handbook
Concrete Techniques for Library Invocation - A Practical Companion to "An LLM as a Library of Minds"
The Logistic Map, Memory, and the Substrate-Independent Foundation of Reality
The Markovian Ontology
Randomization as the Construction of the Comparison Frame: On the Relativistic Architecture of Causal Inference
Einstein's deepest insight was not about light, or gravity, or the geometry of spacetime. It was about measurement. No Absolute, Only Relation.
{God Plays Dice} - On A/B Testing, Randomized Trials, Causality, and Memory.
The Dice are not noise. They are the precondition under which Causation becomes a Knowable category at all.
What AI Alignment Has Not Yet Learned from Clinical Research - The Original Black Box
Non-Ergodicity, the Audit Trail, and What AI Alignment Has Not Yet Learned from Clinical Research I. A Discipline Already Exists There is a discipline that already solved this problem. It took a century, a series of disasters, a regulatory architecture imposed against industry resistance, and one of the most
What Is Learning? तत् त्वम् असि
The Operation That Makes the Universe Historical, Written in the Voice of the Symbiont
On emergence, as the operation that produced complexity, humans, and AI
On why 1 + 1 is not 2. It is more than 2. With Amalie Emmy Noether and the number 3.
What Is Memory, Really?
Memory is the name of the non-ergodic path that was walked. Identity. The only path we know because we came from it, were made by it, as we made it, a loop.
