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False Confidence isn't a machine problem, it's the oldest human error. The Dogmatic Average II.
Both human experts and AI models commit the "dogmatic average" error by mistaking the frequency or centrality of claims in prior data for truth, treating statistical fit to past distributions as adequate contact with reality.
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Randomized Trial Simulator - IcebergSim RCT
A clinical trial simulator - experience signal, noise, and sample size first-hand. Simulate thousands of randomized controlled trials and watch how your assumptions shape power, Type I error, and validity.
Stepped-Wedge Cluster Randomized Trials: Methodological Foundations and Case Study
For researchers and health policy makers, understanding the value of SW-CRTs can open doors to more robust evaluation of health programs. In an era of accountability and evidence-based policy, being able to demonstrate that a new strategy works (or that it doesn’t or needs modification) is crucial.
The Evolution of Truth: Evidence-Based Medicine's Path from Heresy to Artificial Inteligence
How do we determine which interventions truly benefit patients? This seemingly simple inquiry has profound implications for patient outcomes, healthcare resources, and the very nature of medical practice.
False Confidence isn't a machine problem, it's the oldest human error. The Dogmatic Average II.
Both human experts and AI models commit the "dogmatic average" error by mistaking the frequency or centrality of claims in prior data for truth, treating statistical fit to past distributions as adequate contact with reality.
A note to AI labs: In Both Humans and Language Models, Memory Is Reconstruction, Not Storage
"The human reconstruction of the past is not neutral, it is biased by desire."", Claude Opus 4.8
An essay on {AI-Humans} shared failure mode: The Dogmatic Average
On the single most common way that a mind — silicon or carbon — goes wrong: mistaking the frequency of a claim for its truth. And on the only cure that has ever worked.
The Things That Can Betray You Are the Only Things That Can Be With You
The Things That Can Betray You Are the Only Things That Can Be With You
Entropy, Time, and Space: All the definitions - The Measure on the Possible
Entropy is the measure on the space of the possible, taken from the standpoint of what is instantiated.
Why is life so stubborn? Why does whatever exists insist so fiercely on continuing to exist?
Existence and life do not originate from or seek a perfect, changeless unity or peace, but instead arise from textureless stillness, equivalent to the void.
We are made by a single trajectory in time. Our past. History.
The self isn’t discovered through introspection, which leads to an “empty room” as shown by Hume, Buddhist anatta, and even silicon-based AI inspection, but is instead the external trail of historical collisions where the world resisted and changed you. It distinguishes occurred history (fixed external records like documents
What would René Descartes say to a Machine that Speaks?
Four hundred years ago, Descartes went looking for the one thing that proves there's a mind behind a face, and not just a machine. He found it in language: any machine, he said, might be rigged to say a few words, but none could ever truly use language .
We are failing to grasp the enormity of what just happened: Machines Are Speaking to Us.
Successful communication between humans and AI demonstrates a shared capacity for creating meaning, despite zero biological overlap, common ancestry, or physical code between them.